When a sole supplier becomes a single point of failure

Many provincial operators rely on one mill, packhouse, or importer because that relationship worked for years. The risk appears only when capacity tightens, ownership changes, or a key contact retires.

Early signals worth noting

Watch for slipping confirmation dates, pressure to lift minimum order quantities, and informal comments about plant closures or depot merges. Freight exceptions that used to be rare becoming monthly are another clue that the supplier’s network is under strain.

Practical preparation

Document specifications clearly enough that another vendor could quote without a site visit. Keep a short list of two plausible alternates — even if you only place a trial order once a year. Agree internally who has authority to switch if lead times blow out during peak season.

What not to do

Do not announce a full dual-source policy overnight if your volumes cannot support two healthy relationships. A thin second source that never receives orders will not rescue you when the primary fails. Better a modest, occasional trial than a paper shortlist never tested.